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THE ECONOMY - ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Diversification key to UAE's growth
posted on 25/08/2010
 Structured initiatives to diversify the economy, more liquidity through the introduction of new financial instruments and clarity on the government's overall debt obligation could help the country's economy move forward, officials said.
The UAE economy is presently "at a crossroads", Daman Investments said in a report issued Tuesday.
The report says there are "tough factors to consider, and tough decisions to be made". While the "economic miracle" that is the UAE is still viable, the very real economic situation in which the country finds itself has thrust upon it a set of challenges that will require "courage and ingenuity to overcome".
The report suggests rationalisation of sectoral contribution to GDP that will help the economy balance out and reduce dependency on certain sectors.
Two years into the global economic crisis, one thing is crystal clear: The opinion that the crisis will be over in 24 months and that it will be business as usual after that has proven to be highly optimistic, the report said.
"The reality is that tough economic times are with us for a while and that nations need to factor in a new set of realities in order to have a more realistic view of the environment in which they operate. The UAE is no exception to this new reality," said Daman managing director Shehab M. Gargash.
"About 70 per cent of all businesses within Dubai are involved in trade and retail industries. More structured initiatives are needed," the report said.
"Currently, the bulk of commerce is controlled by the private sector but it is heavily skewed towards certain sectors. For example, 70 per cent of all businesses within Dubai are involved in trade and retail industries."
The report suggested that the government promote the development of small business enterprises in other sectors with the use of major incentives and government assistance.
Shehzad Janab, Head of Asset Management and Advisory at Daman Investments, told Gulf News, "There needs to be a new approach from the government to stimulate the small and medium enterprises (SMEs), as they are the pillars of the country's economy. These could include providing incentives to SMEs in manufacturing and exports as well as providing finances.
The UAE saw the biggest contraction within the GCC of foreign direct investment (FDI) where the value of FDI slumped 72 per cent to US$40 billion in 2009, whereas the GCC's FDI fell 16 per cent to US$520 billion in 2009.
Anaemic growth, liquidity concerns, a highly-publicised real estate crash, high borrowing rates and slower government development activities have all contributed to this sharp drop in FDI activity.
"Going forwards we don't expect an immediate return to active FDI participation in the UAE's economy until we have a more FDI friendly environment," the report said.
Apart from these, officials have asked the government to cut back red tape. As noted in a World Bank finding it takes approximately 62 days to start up a business in the UAE, this is reflected in the UAE's poor ranking in the ease of doing business index published by the World Bank.
Dr Khalid Maniar, managing partner at Horwath MAK, told Gulf News: "The government could now look into reducing procedures that will help fast track business licences and cut unproductive costs incurred due to the delays."
Debt situation not clear
The government's debt situation remains unclear, the report says. Citing various estimates, ranging from US$90 billion to US$160 billion, Daman based its projections of Dubai's debt on the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) estimates at US$109 billion.
Dubai has not been able to easily access the market for debt issuance this year. However, government owned entities, such as Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa), have been able to tap the debt market as they have strong cash flow generating businesses and good transparency, albeit at a far higher funding rate. For example Dewa's recently issued (April 2010) five-year US$1 billion bond was priced to yield 8.5 per cent, far higher than previous years. The Dubai government has eight bonds outstanding with maturities concentrated in the years of 2013-14. "If you look at the debt maturity profile, the next two to three years are going to be tough," Janab said. "The lack of clarity in the size of debts is forcing investors to factor in risk premium."
The report suggested the UAE's sovereign wealth funds play more active role in the domestic market in injecting liquidity that will help key economic sectors to come back strongly.
"The SWFs could play the role of market makers and help lift the markets," Janab said. – Gulf News
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UAE nominal economy to rise 8% in 2010
posted on 22/08/2010
 Higher oil prices will boost the UAE economy by around eight per cent in current prices this year after it plunged by more than 11 per cent in 2009 because of a sharp fall in crude prices, according to a Saudi investment firm.
Real growth is projected at only around 0.9 per cent following a contraction of about 0.6 per cent in 2009 as a result of lower oil output and a sharp downturn in the construction sector, NCB Capital (NCBC) said in a study.
After a decline of 11.9 per cent, the nominal GDP will rebound by nearly eight per cent this year and pick up by around 11 per cent in 2011 and nearly 12 per cent in 2012, said NCBC, an affiliate of the Saudi National Commercial Bank.
The rate of the recovery remains far behind growth in the UAE's nominal GDP in 2008 and 2007, when it leaped by 36 and 22.2 per cent respectively, it said.
Real GDP will also rebound by around 3.1 per cent in 2011 and accelerate by about 4.1 per cent in the following year, the study said.
A breakdown showed the non-hydrocarbon sector will drive real growth in the next two years as it is projected to swell by 3.7 per cent in 2011 and around 4.1 per cent in 2012. In 2010, non-oil growth is forecast at only 0.1 per cent.
The report projected real growth in the oil sector at around 2.1 per cent this year and 2.2 per cent in 2011. It expected growth to pick up to 4.2 per cent in 2012.
"Consumer confidence in the UAE stabilised during the second quarter of 2010, with 43 per cent of the respondents surveyed indicating positive expectations,” NCBC said, citing the recent poll by Bayt Com.
It said the UAE's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped by only around 0.5 points over the previous quarter while its fellow GCC members excluding Qatar, recorded a decline in the range of 1.7-4 points.
"Also inflationary pressures are edging up as the authorities remain committed to a permissive fiscal stance. Abu Dhabi is expected to post a budget deficit of
Dh84.9 billion in 2010 down from Dh126.5 billion in 2009.”
The report said it believed the budget is based on an average oil price of around US$60 per barrel in 2010 against US$40 last year.
The Emirate's oil revenue is projected at nearly118.7 billion this year compared with Dh121.8 billion in 2009 while spending is expected to reach Dh207.5 billion, down from around 251.7 billion last year.
The study gave no reason for its forecast about the improved performance of the UAE economy in 2011-2012 but oil prices are projected by several regional and global institutions to reach nearly US$80 a barrel compared with an expected average of about US$70 this year and nearly US$60 in 2009.
The UAE and other oil producers in the 12-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are also expected to hike crude supplies due to an increase in demand caused by better global economic performance.
Higher oil prices and output are expected to widen the UAE's fiscal surplus from around 0.4 per cent of GDP in 2009 to nearly 5.6 per cent in 2010, around 9.6 per cent in 2011 and 12.2 per cent in 2012, according to NCBC.
The country's current account balance, which plunged into a deficit of 2.7 per cent in 2009, is forecast to rebound into a surplus of about 5.9 per cent this year and nearly 13.1 and 20.3 per cent in 2011 and 2012 respectively. – Emirates 24│7
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Abu Dhabi capital expenditure peaks
posted on 18/08/2010
 Capital spending by Abu Dhabi government surged to its highest level in 2009 as the emirate and other members of the UAE sharply boosted their budgets in response to the global fiscal distress, according to official data.
Capital expenditure climbed to a record high relative to total spending despite a steep decline in the emirate’s income because of a fall of nearly 30 per cent in crude prices and a cut in the UAE’s crude output in line with a collective OPEC decision, showed the figures by the Abu Dhabi Statistics Centre.
The report showed spending on development by Abu Dhabi accounted for around 39.2 per cent of the overall expenditure last year compared with nearly 35.7 per cent in 2008 and 23.8 per cent in 2007.
Current spending, involving salaries to the civil servants and other outlays, was cut to one of its lowest levels of around 60.8 per cent last year from 64.3 per cent in 2008 and as high as 76.2 per cent in 2007, the report showed.
Spending on government projects accounted for nearly 10.9 per cent, far higher than the 7.2 per cent allocated in 2008 and 4.8 per cent in the previous year.
The report showed oil and tax export earnings constituted nearly 89.2 per cent of the total revenue last year against 92 per cent in 2008 and 01.6 per cent in 2007.
Revenue by government departments stood at 8.1 per cent in 2009 compared with around 6.4 per cent in 2008 and 6.5 per cent in 2007.
The remaining revenue sources were capital revenue, which accounted for nearly 2.7 per cent last year against 1.6 and 1.9 per cent respectively in the previous two years, according to the report.
It gave no spending or revenue figures as Abu Dhabi emirate traditionally does not public its local budget details.
But financial analysts noted that its budget accounts for nearly two thirds of the UAE’s consolidated financial account (CFA), which covers the federal budget and spending by each emirate.
The Central Bank, which usually publishes CFA details, has not yet released such figures for the past three years but estimates by the Abu Dhabi-based Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) showed the UAE boosted public spending to its highest ever level of Dh289 billion in 2009 despite lower oil prices.
The 2009 expenditure was way above the 2008 spending of Dh254 billion although oil prices in 2008 were nearly 58 per cent higher than in 2009.
The AMF cited official UAE government figures showing revenue in 2009 plunged to around Dh292.6 billion from a record high of Dh450.3 billion in 2008.
It said the decline was a result of a sharp fall in hydrocarbon export earnings to nearly Dh217.5 billion last year from a peak of Dh362.1 billion in 2008.
“Despite the sharp fall, the UAE consolidated finance account recorded a surplus of around Dh3.5 billion in 2009……this is compared with a record budget surplus of nearly Dh197 billion in 2008,†the report said.
Official CFA data for the past four years showed it has recorded massive surpluses. The surplus stood at around Dh75 billion and Dh69 billion in 2006 and 2007 respectively and was achieved despite a steady rise in actual spending.
The UAE has largely boosted expenditure over the past few years to cope with growing domestic development needs. Spending has picked up in the past two years as part of a fiscal stimulus plan launched by the government to mitigate the downward impact of the global economic downturn.
Oil sales provide the bulk of the UAE’s income but sharp fluctuations in crude prices are offset by the country’s massive overseas assets. Unlike most other Gulf nations, the UAE has not borrowed to finance its budget shortfall, resorting instead to return from those assets. â€" Emirates 24│7
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UAE to open new era of economic relations with Slovenia / Poland
posted on 22/06/2010
 Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansoori, UAE Ministry of Economy, said the UAE is looking forward to new era of economic cooperation with Slovenia, while receiving Samuel Zbogar, Slovenian Minister of Foreign Affairs at his office in Dubai.
Al Mansoori expressed UAE's interest to strengthen relations with Slovenia by forming points of contacts between both countries to coordinate the exchange of official delegations and showcase investment opportunities across the various economic sectors of both countries. Organising common economic forums is another suggestion by the UAE to boost the economic relations between the two countries.
The Slovenian Minister praised the development taking place in the UAE at all levels especially in the fields of renewable energy through Masdar City, which is also the headquarters of IRENA in Abu Dhabi. He also expressed his country's aspirations to establish strong relations with the UAE as a strategic partner for Slovenia in the Middle East.
Al Mansoori also received Poland's Ambassador to the UAE at a farewell reception hosted in his honour for the efforts in enhancing the economic relations between UAE and Poland. Al Mansoori said strategic initiatives will be taken to boost trade relations with Poland.
The volume of trade between the two countries reached US$642 million in 2008 and Polish investments in the UAE reached US$80 million through 18 companies operating here. The UAE is Poland's leading trading partner in the Gulf and imports from Poland are valued at US$617 million. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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Dubai development plans reviewed
posted on 15/06/2010
 Dubai's future economic roadmap and strategic plans came under scrutiny yesterday at a meeting of the Economic Committee of the Dubai Executive Council.
Led by Committee Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, who is also President of the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority and Chairman and Chief Executive of Emirates airline, the committee reviewed the roadmap for economic development in line with Dubai's strategic plan, which aims to boost sustainable development and the global position of Dubai, towards making the emirate a favoured destination for finance, business and tourism.
It also discussed the role of a "balanced performance and responsibilities structure" to achieve the emirate's future goals and to ease the way ahead. A plan to develop small and medium enterprises presented by the Mohammed bin Rashid Establishment for SME Development, was reviewed. The plan included an analytical study of the factors influencing decision-making by businessmen while developing their businesses.
The committee also reviewed other projects put forward by the council to develop the emirate's economy. The Tourism and Commerce Marketing Department presented a study on the development of the tourism sector and ways to exploit the current global situation to give a fillip to tourist arrivals and promote Dubai as a unique and distinguished tourism destination.
Additionally, the Dubai Statistics Centre reviewed a project to provide statistical data on the emirate. – Emirates Business 24|7
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Abu Dhabi, Saxony State sign MoU on partnership and development
posted on 27/05/2010
 Abu Dhabi's Executive Affairs Authority and the German Free State of Saxony have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) acknowledging their mutual economic interests and committing to establish new opportunities to exchange expertise and share knowledge.
The MoU recognises the strategic importance of the close cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Saxony in the areas of science and technology, with special emphasis placed on the field of microelectronics.
The deal was signed by Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, Chairman of the Executive Affairs Authority and Dr. Johannes Beermann, Chief of the State Chancellery and Minister of State for Federal Affairs, Saxony. Present at the signing were Ibrahim Ajami, CEO of Advanced Technology Investment Company (ATIC) and His Excellency Klaus-Peter Brandes, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the UAE.
Abu Dhabi and Saxony have a strong history of working together in this field. ATIC has invested over US$1 billion in one of the world's most sophisticated semiconductor manufacturing facilities, "Fab 1," operated in Dresden by ATIC's GLOBALFOUNDRIES. Fab 1 manufactures 300-mm wafers that are the technology backbone for millions of computers, mobile phones and other devices.
Last summer, Abu Dhabi sent 20 students to work in the GLOBALFOUNDRIES Dresden plant. Next month, 60 students from the Emirate will travel to Dresden to participate in the seven-week "Al Nokhba Internship at GLOBALFOUNDRIES." "This agreement marks a further development in the growing relationship between Saxony and Abu Dhabi. Encouraging the exchange of knowledge in the fields of science and technology can only add to the development of expertise required for the future development of the advanced technology sector in Abu Dhabi," said Al Mubarak. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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UAE-German Joint Economic Commission to meet in Abu Dhabi
posted on 25/05/2010
 The Eighth Meeting of the UAE-German Joint Economic Commission will open in Abu Dhabi today. Minister of Economy Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansouri and German Minister of State for Economics and Technology Dr. Bernd Pfaffenbach will jointly chair the meeting.
The Commission will discuss ways to strengthen the frameworks of cooperation in various fields between the two countries. Among the important topics that will come up for discussion are small and medium enterprises, civil aviation, technology and knowledge-based economy, renewable energy, innovation, air transport and industry.
The Commission will also discuss ways to enhance bilateral trade and create a balance of exports and imports between the two countries, especially after the establishment of the UAE-German joint Council for Trade and Industry earlier in May 2009, which plays a pivotal role in promoting trade relations between the two countries.
Al Mansouri stressed the importance of this meeting, which will contribute to furthering relations and economic prospects between the two countries to advanced levels.
He expressed UAE's commitment to begin a new era of excellent relations with Germany based on the maximum utilisation of economic fundamentals and utilising the large investment potentials on both sides. He said that Germany is a strategic partner of the UAE, especially as it has extensive experience in various vital economic sectors such as small and medium enterprises and industry and alternative energy.
Al Mansouri stressed that the talks will be held with the German side on cooperation in the field of knowledge-based economy. This topic will receive special attention as it is a strategic objective of the UAE's Federal Government, which continually seeks to instil through the adoption of emerging technologies and apply best practices.
He noted that the UAE has made important strides in this area especially as it possesses one of the latest sophisticated infrastructures in the world positioned to establish the concept of knowledge economy in all fields and areas of economic vitality.
It is expected that the meeting will witness signing of a number of memoranda of understanding for cooperation. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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UAE to soon plug holes in the legal, financial system
posted on 25/05/2010
 "The UAE is introducing a wide-ranging programme to address regulatory and legal shortcomings in our financial system," said Ahmed Humaid Al Tayer, Governor of the Dubai International Financial Centre, speaking at the Menasa forum yesterday. "Although we expect a return to high economic growth, it is critical that we urgently address the deeper risks and challenges that the economic crisis revealed."
He said this in his welcome address, and added that "in the coming years, fiscal policy measures combined with systemic reform will be vital to ensuring that the recovery becomes firmly entrenched in Menasa and that our growth remains strong, sustainable, and balanced".
Speaking of the potential of the Menasa region, he said: "The region has a population profile that is creating huge new demand, leading to production growth and greater diversification. The region's large and mostly young population of 1.6 billion people is expected to grow at a rate of 1.4 per cent over the next decade."
Al Tayer pointed out: "It is estimated that at an oil price of US$50, the present value of the GCC's oil and gas exports is US$18.3 trillion (Dh67.21trn) – larger than the 2008 GDP of the US. If oil prices were to average US$100 per barrel and gas US$15, the value of GCC energy exports will be US$37.7trn. This is equal to the world's total stock market value at the end of 2008!"
Also, he said, what would drive growth is that "governments across the region are focusing on reform, liberalisation and diversification programmes". – Emirates Business 24|7
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UAE initials customs agreement with Kazakhstan
posted on 24/05/2010
 The UAE's Federal Customs Authority, or FCA, initialled the final draft of a customs technical and administrative cooperation agreement with Kazakhstan in Astana earlier this month. The official signing of the final agreement is scheduled in few days upon ratification.
Head of International Relations at FCA Saud Al-Akroubi said the agreement will strengthen economic and trade relations between the UAE and Kazakhstan as well as contribute to the growth of their economies, remove violations and "harmful" commercial practices and protect the trade, economic, financial, social and cultural interests of both countries. The agreement, he explained, provides for exchange of customs data between the two countries.
The first round of negotiations on the agreement were held in Dubai last April and the draft was agreed on by both parties in the past few days, he added. The agreement will be effective upon ratification by the relevant national agencies and the leaderships of both countries, noted Al-Akroubi. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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UAE Minister of Economy holds meetings with Algerian officials
posted on 24/05/2010
 Algiers - UAE Minister of Economy Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri who led the UAE delegation to the eighth Joint UAE-Algerian Committee meeting held talks with Algerian ministers and senior officials on ways to further promote cooperation on tourism, banking, finance, investment and industries.
In remarks during the meetings, Al-Mansouri stressed that the UAE-Algerian relations are constantly progressing under directives from President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. At his meeting with Algerian Minister of Urban Planning, the Environment '&' Tourism Cherif Rahmani on boosting cooperation on tourism and environment and the UAE's investment in Algeria, Al-Mansouri stressed that Algeria is a strategic investment destination for UAE entrepreneurs offering promising growth opportunities in several sectors.
He also noted that the UAE, as part of its efforts to diversify income and expand its economic base, has given great attention to tourism, infrastructure and its natural and archaeological resources which attract around 8 million foreign tourists annually to hundreds of hotels throughout the UAE.
A large clientele of the rich and the highest spending tourists has been built by the UAE's successful meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions industry, or MICE, according to Al-Mansouri. MICE tourists who visit the UAE spend 30% more than regular tourists do, he noted.
Al-Mansouri said that the UAE serves as a strategic hub for Algeria and as a gateway to the Middle East, stressing that the UAE is doing its best to offer foreign investors an ideal and profitable investment environment.
Al Mansouri explained the UAE's policy of diversifying income resources, and the vital role played by the tourism sector and its contribution to the economy. The country's modern infrastructure and various attractions make it an attractive tourism destination, he said, adding that the UAE is the fifth leading destination in the world in hosting exhibitions and events after the UK, France, Japan and Canada, which makes it a popular business travel destination too. He said that the UAE is open to sharing its expertise in the tourism sector with Algeria.
Mr. Rahmani congratulated the UAE for the great successes achieved by nation. He also lauded UAE's efforts and commitments towards environment related issues and its leading position in renewable energy, having chosen as the headquarters of IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency.
Al-Mansouri also met Mr. Hamid Temmar, Algerian Minister of Industry and Investment Promotion. The two ministers discussed possible areas of cooperation in industrial and investment sectors now and in the future.
Al-Mansouri said that Arab market is mature enough to host and establish sophisticated industries, as it has easy access to all necessary components such as capital, human and infrastructure do exist. He said that UAE is also focusing on the Industrial sector and decrease the dependence on oil and gas sectors.
The industrial sector has contributed to 15% of GDP and is expected to achieve 20% share in the coming years. The country has over 4644 industrial firms with a capital of 81 billion exist in UAE.
Al-Mansouri also met the Governor of the Central Bank of Algeria Mohammed Laksaci and discussed how to strengthen relations between the UAE and Algerian financial organisations. He stressed the importance of permitting UAE banks to establish branches in Algeria and the value they add to the Algerian financial systems. Al Mansouri said that the UAE financial system in UAE is stable, reiterating that the liquidity ratio is good and sufficient to finance various development projects. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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UAE-Algerian joint committee meetings open in Algiers
posted on 20/05/2010
 Algiers - UAE Minister of Economy Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri and Algerian Finance Minister Karim Judi opened in the Algerian capital yesterday the eighth meeting of the UAE-Algerian Joint Committee. A number of topics and important files will be discussed in the meeting in the joint quest of both countries to enhance bilateral relations, especially in the fields of economy, trade and mutual investments.
In his opening remarks Al Mansouri alluded to the major developments witnessed in the bilateral ties between UAE and Algeria in recent years.
He stressed that both countries have enough potentials to enhance relations in various avenues, thus fulfilling the aspirations of the leaders and the people of UAE and Algeria.
Al Mansouri noted that the meeting is of particular importance to the expansion of economic cooperation and increasing trade exchange and joint investments, adding that the meetings of the UAE-Algeria Joint Committee laid solid foundations to build close and cooperative relations between the two countries.
He noted that the meeting in Algeria today is nothing but a clear expression of the great importance we attach to the advancement of relations of cooperation and upgrade to new heights in the interest of the two countries in all fields. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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Arab media sheds light on UAE economy
posted on 04/12/2009
 Media across the Arab world continued to shed light on the strength of the UAE economy and its resistance to the repercussions of the global economic crisis.
Tunisia's 'Al-Shurooq' daily newspaper said that despite the global economic crisis which cast its shadow on the entire world, the UAE is braving the fallouts and is continuing to implement its developmental projects spread across the seven emirates, especially in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
The projects are progressing forcefully as per the plans drawn out for their completion, said the paper.
In a wide-ranging report on the developmental boom in the United Arab Emirates, prepared by its special correspondent Mohammed Ali Khalifa, the paper alluded to the determinant statement of Vice President and Prime Minister of UAE and Ruler of Dubai HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who said that what is being achieved in UAE today is something that resembles a dream coming true.
The reporter had recently made an extensive tour of the UAE as a member of Arab and foreign journalists from 46 countries who were invited to witness the country's progress as it celebrated its 38th National Day.
The report also quoted Sheikh Mohammed as saying that 'what ever is there in Abu Dhabi and Dubai is for UAE and its people'.
The paper said that the words of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid spelt out the confidence and determination for rising anew and continue the march of economic development in UAE without pausing to look back, but setting its eyes on a vision of optimism.
It noted that the attendance of General Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the UAE Armed Forces at the recently concluded Dubai Airshow 2009 is a powerful message to the world markets that Dubai does not stand alone.
Meanwhile a prominent Jordanian newspaper criticised the media hype on Dubai describing it as superficial and tendentious.
'Al-Dastour' daily stressed in an article that the capabilities of Dubai will remain powerful.
The article also said that what have been appearing in the Arab media during the last few days on the so-called debt crisis in Dubai, have also showed the need for financial analysts and economists with a high degree of efficiency and objectivity to provide explanations and logical analysis to the Arab reader.
'Most of what I had read was kind of ridiculing or arbitrary attempts to associate the crisis in Dubai with the policy of economic openness in Jordan through some articles published in the cyberspace. These articles deserve to be archived in museums under the slug: rare things in history' said the writer in his article.
The author claimed that the capacity of Dubai will continue to exist because it represents the fastest and the easiest administrative system of services in the region.
'If this crisis has been overcome with transparency and efficiency, Dubai will restore many of its welfare, and perhaps learn from the mistakes that led to this crisis, because the culture of economic management and investment in the services sector will continue to exist on a better level than that of their counterparts in the region.
'It is difficult for any economic system in the region to replace Dubai and this means that the global economy needs Dubai and this will help the emirate to rise again from the stumble', said the article. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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Three women enter ADCCI election fray for first time
posted on 03/12/2009
 For the first time in the history of the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ADCCI), three women are in the fray for the election of its board of directors.
The ADCCI elections will be held on Monday and all 72,226 members of the ADCCI are expected to take part in the voting.
The three women candidates are: Fatima Al Jaber, CEO of the Al Jaber Group, and Noura Jasem Al Nowais, CEO of Al Benaa Real Estate Investment – both UAE nationals – and Egyptian Himat Mohammed Mahmoud, who is contesting for one of the two seats reserved for expatriate board members.
Al Jaber – who is responsible for one of Abu Dhabi's biggest contracting groups, with investments valued in the billions of dollars – is the favourite to win, Emirates Business has learnt. This is attributed to her experience – she was responsible for the roads sector in the Abu Dhabi Government.
In addition, she is an eminent participant at the Abu Dhabi Businesswomen's Council, as well as a prominent member of the contracting and business sector in the emirate.
"I did not prefer to be simply nominated to the ADCCI's board. I wanted to engage in an election to prove the abilities of the Abu Dhabi woman and her capability to provide more services to ADCCI members and to Abu Dhabi," Al Jaber told the newspaper.
Al Nowais told the newspaper she was running under a manifesto that calls for more transparency and diversification in the services for the ADCCI's members, who totalled 72,226 at the end of last month.
She underlined the necessity to facilitate the procedures required to be completed by ADCCI members to obtain bank loans. She also promised more incentives and additional benefits for ADCCI members.
Al Nowais also called for meetings between the ADCCI's former members and those who will run for the next elections to exchange ideas and learn from their experiences.
Meanwhile, Mahmoud faces stiff competition from several other expatriates, including noted Indian investor Yousufali MA and Dr Kasim Al Oum, Manager of Al Noor Medical Group. – Emirates Business 24|7
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UAE inflation at 1.9% in first 10 months of 2009
posted on 25/11/2009
 Annual consumer inflation in the UAE averaged 1.9 per cent in the first 10 months of the year but prices fell 0.1 per cent month-on-month in October itself, official figures showed yesterday.
Year-on-year only clothing, health and entertainment categories decreased in cost, the ministry of economy's national bureau of statistics said in a statement published on its website.
Rent and utility prices increased 0.96 per cent year on year in the first 10 months, revealed the figures.
Monica Malik, chief economist with EFG Hermes, said the housing component figure is "surprising". "We had expected a far negative inflation rate given the fall in rental prices in Dubai and we are factoring a sharp drop in housing cost," she said.
The financial crisis hit the property sector, as the rental prices in Dubai dropped nearly 38 per cent in 2009, according to investment bank HC Securities Investment (HCSI).
The index covers consumer prices in all of the seven emirates.
Education and the group of drinks and tobacco increased most among all the basket categories at 9.51 per cent and 11.14 per cent respectively. "While beverages category has seen the largest increase in prices, its impact on inflation will be limited given the fact that it accounts for less than one per cent of the basket," she said.
"Increases in education costs will be the main positive contributor to price changes. Housing has the largest weighing accounting for 39.3 per cent of the basket," she added.
The UAE Minister of Economy, Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansouri said on Friday the country's inflation has dropped to three per cent in 2009 from more than 12 per cent last year. – Emirates Business 24|7
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Contribution of non-oil should be increased for long run economic growth, Mohammed Omar Abdullah
posted on 24/11/2009
H.E Mohammed Omar Abdullah, Under Secretary of Department of Economic Development in Abu Dhabi has underlined the need to increase the contribution of non oil sector for long term economic development of Abu Dhabi.
"We generate our main income from oil, however this is not enough in the long run and we have to increase the contribution of non oil sector for maintaining economic stability", he said while interacting with foreign journalists at ECSSR on Monday. These journalists have been invited by National media Council on the occasion of 38th National Day of UAE.
He talked about Abu Dhabi's Vision 2030 in detail and said that it is a government-backed development plan for the emirate that sets guidelines for key infrastructure, real estate, tourism and financial targets for the next 20 years, as the city aims to assert its place as a global hub and capital of the UAE federation.
The initiatives are planned to fuel GDP growth of 7% until 2015, and 6% for the following 15 years.
The plan also focuses on the logistical growth of Abu Dhabi, as it aims to accommodate estimates of 3.1 million residents by 2030. New public transport infrastructure is being planned and implemented, as are provisions for affordable housing for UAE nationals and low and mid income groups.
He said the role of the Department of Economic Development Abu Dhabi is to create an ideal economic environment that ensures continuous growth and provides promising opportunities for a developed society.
"To develop economic plans, enhance Abu Dhabi's business environment and provide tools and mechanisms that focus on customer requirements to allow for the continuous creation of opportunities for society", he added.
The department decided under the instructions of the government to translate this vision in to plan, so we have developed the five year plan and this economic plan was used as a tool to implement the vision 2030.
Pointing out the principles of Vision 2030 he said they are to maintain the sustainable growth of the economy, integration of Abu Dhabi economy into National economy, encouraging the participation of UAE Nationals in the plan, ensure plan of Abu Dhabi is also related to the federal plan and to ensure full diversification of the economy and also take into consideration the environmental issues.
"We ensure that growth comes from the non-oil sector basically besides encouraging the private sector to participate and take forward this growth, and enable us to take the share of non oil sector in the GDP not less than 64 per cent by 2030", he added.
For this private sector and non oil sector should have some incentives to that and for this we develop several initiatives to ensure that we provide the private sector with support they require in order for them to contribute in the economy and to enhance our growth.
About women empowerment he said that special funds have been allocated to maximize the women participation in the economic development of emirate.
"We are also working for the equal distribution of wealth to the other part of Abu Dhabi , western region, ester region and to ensure that all Emiratis will take active part in the economic development", he said. - Emirates News Agency, WAM
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UAE economy could expand 5% in 2010
posted on 24/11/2009
The UAE is poised to make a strong comeback from the nearly flat growth it experienced last year and growth next year will be more sustainable compared to the boom of 2008, according latest projections.
"We are seeing a fundamentally strong recovery taking shape in the Gulf region with the UAE and Saudi Arabia leading the trend. We estimate Dubai will grow about 3 per cent next year and the UAE economy as a whole will experience about 5 per cent growth,” said Marios Maratheftis, Regional Head of Research at Standard Chartered.
Unlike the boom of 2008, UAE growth next year will be driven by investments in productive sectors such as infrastructure and small and medium enterprises.
"This recovery is the result of strong fiscal spending. We believe it is sustainable because it is not liquidity-driven or due to excessive investment in real estate,” said Maratheftis.
Standard Chartered estimates the Gulf region along with emerging markets will be at the forefront of the global recovery.
"The recovery is going to be a slow process in the US and the western economies, however we do not see the possibility of a double dip recession. The Gulf and East Asia will be way ahead on the recovery path,” said Gerard Lyons, chief economist of Standard Chartered.
The International Monetary Fund and other independent economists have predicted the UAE will grow 2 to 3 per cent in 2010, so Standard Chartered's estimate is the highest independent estimate.
Best-positioned
"We believe the UAE is best-positioned in the region to benefit from the pick-up in global economic activity. The region-specific concerns have started to ease,” said Turker Hamzaoglu, economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
While UAE inflation in 2010 is expected to be 6 per cent, economists cautioned against the medium term possibility of global capital inflows into the country resulting in higher inflation.
"What was good for the US in 2009 was good for the UAE and the rest of the Gulf. We are recovering at a faster pace than the US, thus the lower cost of money transmitted through the peg could result in higher inflation,” said Maratheftis. – Gulf News
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UAE economy to see sharp rebound in 2010
posted on 19/11/2009
 Lower oil production will ally with slowing construction activity to try and depress the UAE economy in 2009, but the economy is expected to rebound by nearly four per cent in 2010, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said yesterday.
In a statement sent to Emirates Business, the London-based information unit said it had cut its earlier forecasts about the contraction in the UAE's gross domestic product (GDP) this year from four to 3.5 per cent following an improvement in oil prices and expected rise in the country's crude output.
"The numbers from the UAE Central Bank indicate that a slowdown was already underway in the latter part of 2008, and consequently, there was less momentum going into 2009. During 2009, the global recession has been hitting the UAE hard, leading to a sharp reduction in construction activity," said David Butter, EIU's Middle East Editor.
"This comes in addition to Opec-mandated cuts in oil production – which have been affecting Abu Dhabi's output for most of the year – weak growth in investment and almost no expansion in services."
Citing projections by EIU, an affiliate of the Economist Group, Butter said economic activity appears to be picking up strongly in the fourth quarter after a large increase in crude prices and gradual global recovery.
"Moreover, EIU expects the UAE to increase its oil production slightly towards the end of the year, which is why we have revised our estimate for 2009 to a contraction of 3.5 per cent from four last month," said the report.
"A gradual increase in oil output, the coming on stream of several large projects in the country and a return of investor confidence, are expected to lead to a growth of four per cent in 2010, helped then by positive base effects."
According to the EIU statement, the UAE economy is projected to pick up pace in 2011 as consumer and investor confidence returns on the back of more robust world economic growth and as banks resume lending. It said the GDP estimate for 2009 could improve if export growth turns out better than EIU currently expects, or if tourism rises strongly in the fourth quarter.
"The bias to our forecast remains on the downside, especially for 2011, owing to the possibility of a w-shaped global recovery, with a new downturn in late 2010 or early 2011. Many real estate projects have been cancelled or postponed, and these may not resume if previous growth levels are not attained."
EIU noted that many real estate projects in the country had been cancelled or postponed, especially in the private sector, because of the global financial crisis, adding that they may not resume if previous growth levels are not attained.
"Moreover, the population—which grew at an average of seven per cent a year over the past decade—is forecast to decline in 2009, as expatriate jobs are cut in the construction, real estate, tourism and financial services sectors, and to rise only gradually thereafter. This will affect private consumption in both the short and the medium term," the report said.
Figures released by the Ministry of Economy showed the UAE's GDP, the second largest in the Arab World after Saudi Arabia, soared to an all-time high of about Dh934.2 billion in current prices in 2008 from Dh758.02 billion in 2007. Real GDP swelled by 7.4 per cent to about Dh535.3bn from Dh498.3bn. – Emirates Business 24|7
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Economy Ministry will follow up results of UAE-UK Joint Economic Committee meeting, Mansouri
posted on 16/11/2009
 HE Engineer Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri, UAE Minister of Economy said the Ministry has adopted a focused programme of action to follow up on the results of the previous UAE- UK Joint Economic Committee Meeting and to ensure that the implementation of the agreed decisions is running smoothly.
Al Mansouri said that both countries should benefit from the successful results of the committee meeting.
"The implementation programme will help to enhance the economic ties between our countries. We will be directly communicating with the British officials in the coming three months by arranging video conferences. The first one will be in January 2010 to discuss the progress and updates of implementation of the projects and activities that were agreed by both parties at meeting", he added.
Al Mansouri said the Ministry is keen to involve local departments in the programme and that there will be common meetings with the concerned parties to explore the opportunities of participating in the Ministry's program.
Mohammed Ahmed Bin Abdul Aziz Al Shihhi, Director General at the Ministry of Economy said: "The implementation program will include various economic sectors with a focus on increasing investments through our Investment Department at the Ministry which will coordinate with the concerned parties in the UAE and the British Embassy to specify the areas. We will form a team to coordinate with the UK in the domain of financial services, especially Islamic services, and another team will coordinate the fields of research and development and renewable energy".
Al Shhihi said that the program will also focus on the small and medium businesses and industries, with a special UAE team to work with the UK on the possibilities of manufacturing British products in the UAE.
Regarding the possibility of establishing a UAE-UK Federal Business Council that builds on the excellent work of the British business groups in the UAE, the Ministry will coordinate with the concerned parties to discuss it and inform the UK about the UAE's recommendations.
Abdullah Salem al-Turafi, CEO of Emirates Securities '&' Commodities Authority, said the Authority has built a strategic relationship with various bodies in the stock exchange market in the United Kingdom, and this relation will support the implementation programme that will contribute to developing the relations to highest levels. - Emirates News Agency, WAM
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UAE non-oil economy to rise 2.1% despite sharp drop in oil output
posted on 16/11/2009
 Heavy public spending triggered by the global fiscal crisis will boost the UAE's non-oil economy by 2.1 per cent in 2009 despite a sharp decline in the country's oil production, said a Saudi investment firm yesterday.
NCB Capital, an affiliate of Saudi Arabia's largest bank, National Commercial Bank, also said the recent surge in crude prices had prompted it to revise its projection of the UAE's fiscal balance to a surplus this year.
In its weekly bulletin, NCB Capital said the UAE's real gross domestic product (GDP) would slip by about 1.2 per cent this year but would rebound in 2010.
"We forecast the UAE's real GDP to contract by about 1.2 per cent in 2009, with the oil sector contributing -2.8 per cent points. The modest 2.1 per cent growth in non-oil sector, after years of high growth in the range of eight to 10 per cent, will limit the GDP contraction," said the bulletin. It said the cut in Opec quotas earlier this year had affected Abu Dhabi's growth significantly, while a sharp reduction in construction activity also adversely impacted growth prospects in Dubai.
The departure of expatriate workers because of job losses has contributed to a further contraction in private consumer demand, the report said. "The government's counter-cyclical fiscal measures will provide some support to overall growth this year. In 2010, we expect real GDP growth to recover by 2.6 per cent, as contribution from the non-oil sectors witnesses a revival," it said.
Citing government data, the report said the UAE's 2009 budget projected a 21 per cent increase in federal spending, to be financed by drawing down cumulative external savings of recent years. By contrast, the budget for 2010 proposes a meagre 3.4 per cent increase in spending while maintaining a fiscal balance.
"Importantly, however, low sovereign debt levels leave enough room for the government to raise funds in international bond markets to bridge the financing gap that emerged during the global credit freeze."
Turning to inflation, NCB Capital expected the rate to drop to an annual average of 1.9 per cent after standing at about 3.4 per cent in the first half of this year.
"In 2010, we expect a revival of domestic demand, the weakening US dollar and higher commodity prices will push up average inflation to 2.9 per cent." – Emirates Business 24|7
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Mansouri stresses need to unify efforts for economic development
posted on 14/11/2009
 HE Eng. Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansouri, Economy Minister, has underlined the need to unify Arab efforts in supporting common economic interest and increasing trade among Arab countries.
During his meeting with HE Mohammed Al Hussein, Syrian Minister of Finance, said that investment opportunities would have to be explored that could benefit economic growth in the Arab world.
HE Dr. Rostom Al Zoubi, Syrian Ambassador to the UAE and a number of senior officials were also present.
They underscore the need to follow up results of the UAE-Syrian Joint Economic Committee meeting held in Abu Dhabi, whereas both sides agreed to focus on economic areas, which are considered strategic cooperation objects for both countries, by following work on a monthly basis and communicating directly with stakeholders through organizing field visits for UAE businessmen to Syria to explore ways of investing in various vital economic sectors.
The two sides also stressed on the importance of taking advantage of the benefits provided by each of the agreement on encouragement and reciprocal protection of investments signed by both countries in 1988 and the agreement on avoidance of double taxation on income signed in 2000, which contributes in facilitating capital movement and establishing joint ventures between the two countries.
On the other hand, Syrian Finance Minister expressed his country's keenness on providing facilities and possibilities that could contribute to the development of economic relationship with various economic actors in the UAE, pointing out that there are many vital sectors that provide the right opportunities for UAE investors, particularly in the sectors of tourism, industry, insurance and services.
Al Mansouri directed Joint Committee to implement what has been agreed upon during the meeting of the Committee.
He received, an invitation from his Syrian counterpart, to visit Syria to view investment and economic reality and to explore ways to develop economic relations between both countries. – Emirates News Agency, WAM
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UAE shines as GCC poise to attract $45bn investments by 2014, KFC report
posted on 12/11/2009
The GCC civil aviation sector is poised to attract more than $45 billion (Dh165bn) in investments over the next five years, according to a new research by Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz).
The UAE is well ahead of other GCC countries on this count, with its new Al Maktoum International Airport in Jebel Ali's Dubai World Central development due to open in the middle of next year, and with the airport expected to increase the country's capacity by an additional 120 million passengers, says the report carried by a local daily.
The Emirates Business while quoting the report has said that UAE's total investments up to 2014 are estimated to be about $22.3bn, Qatar is likely to follow with $14bn worth of spending, and Saudi Arabia $5.3bn.
There are currently more than $50bn worth of aviation infrastructure projects in the Middle East, planned to cater to rising passenger traffic and freight demand at regional airports. "We estimate that the needed investments to sustain this expansion would be in the range of $45-50bn concentrated primarily in the UAE and Qatar," the report said.
And the total number of passengers using the GCC's largest airports are expected to grow to nearly 280 million by 2014 compared to 126 million in 2008, with the passenger traffic in the GCC likely to grow at a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 12 per cent between 2008 and 2014.
There are about 37 airports in the GCC at present, of which more than 30 are in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the report highlighted. While Saudi Arabia has four international airports and 22 domestic airports, with international airports accounting for 85 per cent of passenger traffic, the UAE accounted for 45 per cent of airport capacity in August 2009 followed by Saudi Arabia, with 26 per cent.
Meanwhile, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have become the regional leaders by adopting an open skies policy, which, according to the report, has played a key role in the development of the aviation industry in these countries.
"The GCC aviation industry was abuzz with activity during the past several years thanks to the oil boom. Passenger traffic growth averaged nine per cent during 2002-2008 while in some economies such as the UAE it even exceeded the average and touched 13 per cent annual growth. This is in stark contrast to rest of the world, which was in the region of one to three per cent," it said.
It added that massive expansion programmes were initiated both at the airport infrastructure level as well as fleet expansion. Even though the Middle East accounts for "less than 10 per cent of world traffic and revenues", the share of fleet orders are "disproportionately higher".
With six international airports with two under construction and projects worth $22.3bn in various stages of development, the UAE leads the region in terms of development of aviation infrastructure.
Dubai International Airport remains as one of the world's busiest airports, ranking sixth in terms of international passenger traffic and fourth in terms of international freight traffic.
The passenger traffic in the first eight months of 2009 increased 6.7 per cent year-on-year to 26.87 million, while the same showed a decline of seven per cent for worldwide passenger traffic. Dubai International expects total passengers to reach 40.5 million by the end of 2009 and top 46 million in 2010, the report said. - Emirates News Agency, WAM
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Innovation is driving force for further developing Islamic world: Al Mansouri
posted on 09/11/2009
 Istanbul - H.E. Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansouri, UAE Minister of Economy, said that innovation is the driving force for the development of the Islamic world. He was addressing the COMSEC Ministerial Meeting held in Istanbul.
Al Mansouri urged Islamic nations to join hands and strengthen the level of coordination to explore promising investment opportunities. He also called for more cooperation in small and medium businesses, industries and agriculture.
He said the Islamic world with a population of over 1.7 billion contributes more than US$ 2.2 trillion to the global GDP and is a compelling economic bloc that can achieve more if the resources are better managed.
Al Mansouri said this can be achieved through innovation and establishing centres that drive new thinking.. "Innovation creates a big difference for each country and is essential to build a superior and talented new generation. We are aware of this powerful concept in the UAE and have planned to establish one of the best innovation centres in the region." He also underscored the need to address the food security issue that is of crucial importance to all Islamic and Arab countries. "The UAE has prioritized this issue a long time ago and is now taking concrete actions by investing in various countries such as Sudan, Cambodia, Egypt, Pakistan and India. We hope that other countries are also aware of the need for food security and will take steps to tackle this issue for the long term".
Al Mansouri said the Islamic world has faced the challenges of the global crisis remarkably well. Islamic banking, which is inherently averse to risk, has withstood the global financial crisis with limited repercussions. "One of the lessons of the crisis is the need to adopt strong corporate governance measures and the highest standards of transparency. These are basic ethos of Islamic banking," he said. .
He added that the UAE was the first country in the world to establish a full-fledged Islamic bank, back in 1972. Today, the UAE has six Islamic banks contribute significantly to the financial sector in the UAE with a combined capital of US$4 billion, representing 14.5 % of the total banking assets in the UAE.
Many foreign banks in the UAE have special divisions providing Sharia-compliant products and services. But the growth in Islamic banking is not restricted to the UAE; it is a worldwide phenomenon. Today, there are more than 300 Islamic bank and institutions in 90 countries around the world, and their average annual growth rates have reached 10 to 15%, he said. - Emirates News Agency, WAM
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COMSEC opened, Minister of Economy heads UAE delegation
posted on 08/11/2009
 Istanbul - Turkish President Abdullah Gul opened here yesterday morning the twenty-fifth meeting of the Permanent Ministerial Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation (COMCEC) of Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). The UAE delegation to the meeting is headed by Minister of Economy HE Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri.
The issues such as the global financial crisis, cooperation between member states and the fight against poverty are among the items topping the meeting's agenda.
Turkish President Abdullah Gul opened the 25th meeting of the Permanent Ministerial Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation (COMCEC) of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC).
The UAE delegation to the meeting is headed by Minister of Economy HE Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri. The issues such as the global financial crisis, cooperation between member states and the fight against poverty are among the items topping the meeting's agenda.
Gul welcomed in his inaugural speech the heads of delegations, stressing that the COMCEC meetings would be crowned with the Economic Meetings of the heads of states to mark the 25th anniversary on the inception of COMCEC.
He referred to the positive developments in the second half of this year to overcome the World Financial Crisis, citing surge of Muslim countries exports to different countries worldwide. The Turkish president noted that the exports reflect progress and joint cooperation among the member countries, stressing the need for activating the agreements signed by the members and signing of more agreements to strengthen joint Islamic work.
President Gul emphasised the importance of private sector in the Muslim countries in boosting the Islamic economy. "We have to channel our efforts to boost trade and create good environment for the private sector". He added that the meetings will discuss Monday the global financial crunch, food crisis in Muslim countries, climate change and water resources.
The Turkish president stressed the need for resolving the Middle East problems through dialogue, adding that the Palestinian problem is the base of instability in the region. He called on all parties to solve the problem amicably through constructive and serious dialogue. President Gul added that the Syrian-Lebanese-Israeli differences are inseparable part of the problem in the region, including the Iranian nuclear programme and instability in Iraq and Afghanistan. - Emirates News Agency, WAM
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Capital to spend US$1tn on major projects
posted on 03/11/2009
 Abu Dhabi will spend US$1 trillion (Dh3.67tn) on major infrastructure, property and manufacturing projects, the Minister of Economy said.
The unprecedented infrastructure spending comes as the emirate speeds up its economic diversification plans in response to the global financial crisis, with projects valued at more than $100 billion under way.
"The planned investments to be implemented through public and private partnerships in infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing sectors over the medium term are expected to reach US$1tn,” Sultan al Mansouri said in a speech at the Abu Dhabi Outlook Summit yesterday.
"This will lead to extraordinary demand for building materials and technological innovations, thus boosting the economy further.”
Abu Dhabi holds about 8 per cent of the world's oil and is already ploughing billions of dollars in oil revenues into such projects as the US$40bn Yas Island development, which hosted the Formula One Grand Prix on Sunday.
Other major projects planned include the US$10bn Shah sour gas project and the Chemaweyaat chemicals cluster, one of the world's largest petrochemical investments.
Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing are central to the country's plans to diversify its economy away from a reliance on oil.
Economists also see infrastructure spending as a key part of reviving economic growth from a downturn by creating jobs, lowering the cost of running businesses and attracting foreign investment. Saudi Arabia announced plans this year to spend US$400bn on infrastructure projects in the next five years.
Such projects in the UAE will account for 17.5 per cent of the Dh43.6bn budget for next year announced by the Ministry of Finance last week.
On the sidelines of the summit, Mr al Mansouri said the country's economy was "definitely” on the path to recovery from the global economic downturn.
He repeated a forecast that growth this year would reach 1.3 per cent, but declined to give an outlook for next year. GDP for next year would hinge on oil prices and the health of the global economy, including levels of trade.
Mr al Mansouri's comments follow renewed fears about the sustainability of the international recovery, fuelled by predictions from some analysts that unemployment figures could continue to rise, increasing the risk of a double-dip recession.
Regionally, concerns persist that a correction in oil prices due to stuttering global demand could provide a setback to Gulf economies.
"The price of oil needs to stabilise at current levels for economies to recover and fiscal and external balances to improve,” said Tim Fox, the chief economist at Emirates NBD.
"On a global level, I am worried that markets might have run too far too fast, and that could carry a risk for the UAE.”
Mr al Mansouri said sectors such as aviation, which had experienced 10 per cent growth this year, were leading the UAE's recovery. He said people had been encouraged to travel to the country for business and leisure through reductions in the cost of hotel and services.
Mr al Mansouri said average inflation for the year so far was between about 2.6 per cent and 2.9 per cent, but his expectation for inflation across the entire year was between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent.
He said the Government hoped to guard against a repeat of previous years before the financial crisis, when inflation reached double-digit levels as the country experienced soaring prices for food and property.
Omar bin Sulaiman, the deputy chairman of the Central Bank, said last week that GDP growth could exceed 4.5 per cent next year.
An IMF official last week forecast the economy would contract by 0.5 per cent this year, then grow by 3 per cent next year. – The National
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IMF praises UAE's handling of crisis
posted on 02/11/2009
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has praised the policies and measures taken by the UAE to overcome the fall out of the global financial crisis.
The IMF mission is visiting the country within Article 4 consultation report to collect data and to be familiar with the economic developments for an assessment report. The mission met with Minister of State for Financial Affairs Obaid Humaid Al Tayer.
It said financial policies have played an important role in supporting and strengthening the economy. The achievement reflected the positive side, firmness of the economy and the strong desire on part of the federal government to preserve the gains made and to benefit from the opportunities emerging at the world level, including how to attract global capital.
The response was swift and comprehensive through the allocation of Dh70 billion to support liquidity among banks and the establishment of the Dubai Support Fund.
The IMF mission said this policy led to economic stability in the country, especially in Dubai. This is reflected by the decisions to proceed with strategic infrastructure projects such as Dubai Metro and Jebel Ali Airport.
World liquidity has started to flow anew to the UAE via financial markets as well as deposits coming from the Arabian Peninsula and Switzerland as the rate of interest on deposits has gone up. Also up was interest on bonds, said the IMF mission. It highlighted the need to boost readiness to receive global financial flows. The UAE has several attractions, primarily that it is an open economy. The mission said the measures taken by the UAE Ministry of Finance to co-ordinate financial policies between the federal government and local ones will play an active role in consolidating the management of expenses.
The IMF mission expected gross domestic product to rise by three per cent in 2010, 4.3 per cent in 2011 and five per cent in 2012. Growth of non-oil sector will reach one per cent in 2009, three per cent in 2010 and four per cent in 2011.
Also the growth is expected to reach 0.7 per cent in 2009 while inflation would retreat to one per cent, after it was 12.2 per cent in 2008.
The mission expected exports to reach US$165.5bn (Dh608bn) in 2009, US$188.2bn in 2010, US$207.2bn in 2011 and US$221.9bn in 2012. The current account is expected to shrink in 2009 to 3.5 per cent of the GDP as a result of the retreat in oil exports. However, it is expected to reach 4.1 per cent in 2010. The broad money supply is expected to rise in 2009 to Dh731.6bn, from Dh674.3bn in 2008. It will continue to rise to reach Dh825bn in 2010. - Emirates News Agency, WAM
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